lake county real estate. and then some…

selling homes…a family tradition

Ten years ago, the housing market began it’s downward spiral. The question has been raised if we couldn’t be looking at a re-occurence, however there are some big differences between 2008 and 2018…

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Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018 | MyKCM

Some are attempting to compare the current housing market to the market leading up to the “boom and bust” that we experienced a decade ago. They look at price appreciation and conclude that we are on a similar trajectory, speeding toward another housing crisis.

However, there is a major difference between the two markets. Last decade, while demand was being artificially created by extremely loose lending standards, a tremendous amount of inventory was coming to the market to satisfy that demand. Below is a graph of the inventory of homes available for sale leading up to the 2008 crash.

 

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018 | MyKCM

A normal market should have approximately 6 months supply of housing inventory. As we can see, that number jumped to over 11 months supply leading up to the housing crisis. When questionable mortgage practices ceased, and demand dried up, there was a glut of inventory on the market which caused prices to drop as there was too much supply and not enough demand.

Today is radically different!

There are those who believe that low mortgage rates have created an artificial demand in the current market. They fear that if mortgage rates continue to rise, some of the current demand will dry up (which is a possibility).

However, if we look at supply again, we can see that the current supply of homes is well below the norm of 6 months.

Housing Market: Another Gigantic Difference Between 2008 and 2018 | MyKCM

Bottom Line

We will not have a glut of inventory like we did back in 2008 and home values won’t come tumbling down. Instead, if demand weakens, we will return to a normal market (approximately a 6-month supply) with historic levels of appreciation (3.6% annually).

Author: kieronquane

i am a mom. and a wife. and a realtor. when i grow up i want to spend all day taking pictures and then spend all night looking at them. in the meantime, my mom and i are going to keep selling houses. for sellers who are moving on, and to buyers who are moving in. real estate is such a part of our daily lives, that it carries over into everything we are. and it is of interest to so many people. so i thought i would start talking. who knows...i may actually find that i have something interesting to say :)

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